The fun and intrigue of a national election (especially in a swing state like Wisconsin) always bring me to wonder at the glory of statistical evidence, and its practical application to really important decision-making. We all take measures of things when deciding which way to turn, how to vote, how much energy, cash, or staff to allocate to a specific project. And somehow we come to think that the measure, itself, is an objective yardstick against reality.
Of course, measures, statistics, and other forms of feedback are just pieces of an astounding puzzle. They can frame our thinking, or test our assumptions. But as stand-alone evidence, they will always come up short.
It brings to mind three quotes that always kick around in my head — two jokes about statistics, and one rather imponderable quote about what we actually measure when we measure. First the two jokes:
Did you hear about the man with his head in the oven and his feet in the freezer? On average, he was quite comfortable.
…and…
Studies have clearly shown that when you open your umbrella, your feet get wet.
Then the quote about measurement, from the über-brilliant physicist Werner Heisenberg in the 1950s:
”…what we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning. Our scientific work in physics consists in asking questions about nature in the language we possess.”
Surely, evidence is an essential part of making decisions, and of understanding our world (our physical world, business world, social world, and on and on). But that evidence is always subject to our own internal flaws and foibles, and always ready to lead us to a false conclusion (okay, to keep my feet dry, I won’t open my umbrella anymore). According to Heisenberg, at least, our language and perspective are as much part of the measure as the object itself.