{"id":977,"date":"2013-08-05T06:35:33","date_gmt":"2013-08-05T13:35:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/?p=977"},"modified":"2013-08-05T06:35:33","modified_gmt":"2013-08-05T13:35:33","slug":"the-unknowable-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2013\/08\/the-unknowable-future\/","title":{"rendered":"The unknowable future"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"don't<\/a>At Marginal Revolution<\/a> (which often has posts on the economics of the arts – you should be reading it!), Tyler Cowen points us to Paleofuture<\/a>, which gives a 1940s version of the ‘kitchen of the future.’ We would no longer use dishes (‘antiques’) since our food would be processed and dehydrated.<\/p>\n

The 1960s cartoon The Jetsons imagined some similar changes in interior design, although the cooking and cleaning would be done by a robot maid.<\/p>\n

\"good<\/a>What has interested me about visions of the future is that they share a common bias: the aspect of the world undergoing the most significant change at that time is expected to continue along an innovative path, and aspects that are relatively static at that time are expected to remain so. In mid-century we saw advances in processed foods. And so it was imagined that these would eventually completely replace non-processed foods. No more farmers’ markets. And assembly line technology increasingly relied on advances in robotics. If robots could punch rivets in cars on an assembly line, why wouldn’t it eventually be the case that they clean our homes?<\/p>\n

\"Wilma!\"<\/a>Consider that the Jetson family would view television on their wristwatch. In the 1960s watches were getting more sophisticated, and so the expectation was that in the future we would have the most amazing wristwatches. But we don’t. We have amazing telephones, which are very small and we can carry anywhere, and use them to watch tv and catch up on the news and send messages to friends and play games and take pictures. Oh, and talk on the telephone too. And they’ll tell us what time it is. But no one saw that coming – telephony was, in most people’s eyes, a fairly static piece of technology.<\/p>\n

Or, to leave the world of cartoons, consider the book and the film 2001: A Space Odyssey<\/em><\/a>. We see technological innovation on two fronts: space travel, and computers. The advances in space travel are vastly over-estimated. But in the 1950s and 1960s space exploration was moving at a rapid pace, and that pace was projected to continue such that we could explore other galaxies. Computers were advancing to some degree, but as you watch the film notice how it seems to under-estimate<\/em> the advances in information technology and telecommunication. Who could have known?<\/p>\n

\"got<\/a>It is inherent in the nature of technological change that we do not know what is coming next. If we know future technology, then it’s not really future, it’s current. And guesses about what the future brings are prone to bias – we project the most active current<\/em> spheres of technological change into the future, when there is no guarantee that such trends will continue.<\/p>\n

Footnote: I went camping on the weekend, and brought along, of course, a Coleman two-burner stove. These were developed in the 1930s<\/a>, and are essentially unchanged since then – an amazing piece of technology. Not sure what people in the 1940s thought camping would be like in 2013; they might be surprised to know we still make breakfast the same old way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At Marginal Revolution (which often has posts on the economics of the arts – you should be reading it!), Tyler Cowen points us to Paleofuture, which gives a 1940s version of the ‘kitchen of the future.’ We would no longer use dishes (‘antiques’) since our food would be processed and dehydrated. The 1960s cartoon The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-977","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-issues","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3dIW5-fL","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1667,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/11\/arts-policy-and-the-election\/","url_meta":{"origin":977,"position":0},"title":"Arts, policy, and the election (updated)","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"November 3, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Barry's Blog has a post on the consequences of the election, anticipating Republican gains in the House and likely control of the Senate, calling the post 'What Tomorrow's Election Means for the Nonprofit Arts.' Good question! He writes: On the federal level, if the Democrats maintain control of the Senate,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"what's the big deal?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/Voters.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1314,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/05\/l3cs-in-the-arts\/","url_meta":{"origin":977,"position":1},"title":"L3C’s in the arts (updated with citation info)","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"May 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"I have a new working paper up on L3C's in the arts, which you can download for free here. If you were there, it's the paper I presented at Social Theory, Politics and the Arts in Seattle last October, cleaned up and revised. The abstract: Traditionally, the choice of organizational\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"no future?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/mule.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4662,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2026\/03\/colleges-students-and-jobs-nobody-knows-anything\/","url_meta":{"origin":977,"position":2},"title":"Colleges, students, and jobs: nobody knows anything","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"March 9, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"In my past life I spent some time in university administration, and one of my jobs at this public university was to take proposals for new degree programs that the university had approved of to the state board of higher education, for\u00a0their\u00a0necessary approval. In those proposals we had to include\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3824,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2025\/07\/the-search-for-the-very-nice-arts-philanthropist\/","url_meta":{"origin":977,"position":3},"title":"The search for the very nice arts philanthropist","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"July 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Last month, the Scottish government came up with a\u00a0one-time grant of \u00a3300,000\u00a0to cover the Edinburgh International Book Festival, after pressure from environmental protestors caused the previous sponsor, Baillie Gifford, to back out. This week in Canada, its premier book award, the Giller Prize, having lost its primary sponsor, Scotiabank, after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image-1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1074,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/02\/droit-de-suite\/","url_meta":{"origin":977,"position":4},"title":"Droit de suite","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"February 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Legislation is proposed to bring droit de suite - a rule in which some artists receive a share of proceeds from some resales of their art - to the United States. The New York Times reports here, and blog neighbour Lee Rosenbaum analyses the proposal here. I will just deal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"beast of burden","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/auction.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/auction.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/auction.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2294,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2018\/02\/artists-as-speculators\/","url_meta":{"origin":977,"position":5},"title":"Artists as speculators","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"February 7, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"A new working paper from Amy Whitaker and Roman\u00a0Kr\u00e4ussl suggests a new model of finance for visual artists (described by Isaac Kaplan in Artsy here). The abstract of the paper (free download here) is: Using unique historical sales data from the Leo Castelli Gallery, we introduce a novel model of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Hockney's are up three basis points","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/traders.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/traders.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/traders.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/traders.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/traders.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/traders.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/977\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}