{"id":4662,"date":"2026-03-09T08:41:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T15:41:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/?p=4662"},"modified":"2026-03-09T08:41:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T15:41:56","slug":"colleges-students-and-jobs-nobody-knows-anything","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2026\/03\/colleges-students-and-jobs-nobody-knows-anything\/","title":{"rendered":"Colleges, students, and jobs: nobody knows anything"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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In my past life I spent some time in university administration, and one of my jobs at this public university was to take proposals for new degree programs that the university had approved of to the state board of higher education, for their <\/em>necessary approval. In those proposals we had to include a section on forecasts for employment demand for graduates of the program, and there were a few quasi-official agencies who would produce such numbers. One of my PhD fields was labour economics, and I knew, and kept quiet about, the fact that these forecast job numbers were, respectfully, dubious. Not lies<\/em> or anything meant to deliberately mislead, but numbers that were guesses meant to suggest careful application of economic science, but that actually were just extrapolation of trends. Nothing enhances a guess like a table of numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem wasn\u2019t that the labour market forecasts were being done by incompetent people. It\u2019s that we just cannot know very much. The essence of future technological change is that we don\u2019t know what it will be – if we did<\/em> know then we would already have the technology. We cannot know whether some specific applied technique we teach now will be highly valued or useless ten years from now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a good op-ed<\/a> in the Times<\/em> today by Michael Steinberger on the uncertainty that the development of Artificial Intelligence is imposing onto labor markets, especially for recent college graduates. Degrees that ten years ago universities and state boards of higher education would have said were sure things are, in the end, not so sure at all. I don\u2019t write much about AI (except for this piece<\/a> on a hapless attempt by our university to get ahead of the game) and its future impact on work, or on arts and culture, because I would only be guessing as to what sorts of impacts it will have, or whether they will be big or easily absorbed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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So if I had any influence on higher education (I do not)\u00a0I would be resisting calls to be \u201cnimble\u201d and \u201cresponsive to future industry needs\u201d in degree programs, since shifting direction in educational focus at a university is slow and expensive, with unrecoverable costs should you guess incorrectly. Instead, we might avoid the highly specific, or temporarily in high demand, and let students choose from a wide variety of more general options that\u00a0in their view<\/em>\u00a0will be interesting and stimulating and a good fit. Have faith in the knowledge that is decentralized amongst individuals, as Hayek would have put it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alas. Universities are in a rush to be relevant<\/a>, hoping for actual degrees<\/a> in AI no less, and our state government has said that degree programs that don\u2019t pay decent wages <\/a>at the moment<\/a><\/em> ought to be cut <\/a>(including, at my university, a bachelors degree in music in one of the very best public university schools of music in the country).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nobody knows anything. It takes a couple of years to launch a new degree and hire faculty, then students need at least four years to get<\/em> the degree, and then where are we? In the mid-2030s, with a labour market and technologies we just don\u2019t know – can\u2019t<\/em> know – much about at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If a student wants to major in computer science, or epidemiology, or oboe, let them. Don\u2019t try to steer them into fields for which you claim high potential but for which you don\u2019t really have any idea. A student majoring in music knows<\/em> there\u2019s not much money there. A student being told that the new degree in AI is the ticket for the future is taking your word for it, and might borrow heavily on that promise, and we all need to be very careful about leading them on to what might be a dead end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cross-posted at https:\/\/michaelrushton.substack.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In my past life I spent some time in university administration, and one of my jobs at this public university was to take proposals for new degree programs that the university had approved of to the state board of higher education, for their necessary approval. In those proposals we had to include a section on forecasts for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4663,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-4662","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-issues","8":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/image-1.png","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3dIW5-1dc","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1641,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/10\/what-do-college-students-in-the-arts-do-after-graduation\/","url_meta":{"origin":4662,"position":0},"title":"What do college students in the arts do after graduation? (updated)","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"October 20, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"They get to use what they have learned in college?: Among ... respondents\u00a0employed at the time they completed the survey, 64% of recent grads and 69% of prior graduates were in jobs they described as either \u201cvery relevant\u201d or \u201crelevant\u201d to their educational training. Or not?: The majority of arts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"What does my future hold?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/art-students.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1320,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/06\/film-tax-credits-jobs-and-lost-incomes\/","url_meta":{"origin":4662,"position":1},"title":"Film tax credits, jobs, and lost incomes","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"June 2, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"This morning artsjournal.com links to yet another chapter in the endless series of different states, provinces and countries deciding how much in tax credits ought to be granted to commercial film and television production, because: jobs. I recently posted re Maryland here. Today, Hollywood Reporter, er, reports: the California Film\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/the-last-picture-show-poster.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":965,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2013\/07\/amazon-and-the-independents\/","url_meta":{"origin":4662,"position":2},"title":"Amazon and the independents","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"July 30, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Two stories linked by artsjournal.com today about Amazon: gigaom.com (?) on how Amazon is further cutting prices on hardbacks, and the American Booksellers Association upset that President Obama held a major speech on jobs at an Amazon warehouse. Observations: First, while I possess no special insights into what goes on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"can I help you find something?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/youve_got_mail_063udz92-300x168.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2884,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2023\/05\/who-wants-to-go-to-college\/","url_meta":{"origin":4662,"position":3},"title":"Who wants to go to college?","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"May 16, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Should more young people go to college? This morning's papers presented very different answers to the question. The New York Times reports on President Biden's idea that we ought to ensure there are good and interesting careers and stable incomes for people who do not want to, or find it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image-2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image-2.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3107,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2024\/10\/how-should-we-evaluate-guaranteed-income-for-artists\/","url_meta":{"origin":4662,"position":4},"title":"How should we evaluate guaranteed income for artists?","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"October 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Back in the day, I took a few years leave from academia to work in the public service, as a policy advisor to the Cabinet of the government of the province of Saskatchewan. We would receive from various line departments proposals for policy changes or new initiatives, and a large\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-1.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-1.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-1.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-1.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-1.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2842,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2023\/03\/really-it-is-ok-for-a-college-to-sell-art\/","url_meta":{"origin":4662,"position":5},"title":"Really, it is OK for a college to sell art","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"March 17, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A few days ago I wrote a post re Valparaiso University's plans to sell three paintings, with an estimated total market value of $10 million, to deal with its rather dire financial situation, and to make investments seen necessary to attract students, whose numbers have fallen dramatically over the past\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "issues"","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/postbox.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4662","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4662"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4662\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4665,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4662\/revisions\/4665"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4663"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4662"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4662"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4662"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}