{"id":1488,"date":"2014-09-01T19:18:15","date_gmt":"2014-09-02T02:18:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/?p=1488"},"modified":"2014-09-01T19:18:15","modified_gmt":"2014-09-02T02:18:15","slug":"how-should-we-rank-the-employment-prospects-of-cities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/09\/how-should-we-rank-the-employment-prospects-of-cities\/","title":{"rendered":"How should we rank the employment prospects of cities?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/whirlwind-computer.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-1233\" src=\"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/whirlwind-computer-300x185.jpg\" alt=\"Let's not make an index\" width=\"300\" height=\"185\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/whirlwind-computer-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/whirlwind-computer.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>News sites on the web demand a stream of content, and a sure way to produce <em>something<\/em> is to make a list. My <a href=\"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/08\/how-should-we-rank-the-culturalcreative-scenes-of-cities\/\">previous post<\/a> knocked a recent list of \u00a0&#8216;top cities for culture&#8217;, on the grounds that the way the index was constructed made no sense.<\/p>\n<p>Another day, another list, this one from Atlantic&#8217;s CityLab: &#8216;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.citylab.com\/work\/2014\/09\/the-best-job-markets-for-young-college-grads-now\/379296\/\">The best job markets for young college grads now<\/a>&#8216;. Relevant to me, as I teach students in arts administration and hope to understand as best I can what is happening in the labor market. The piece has some of the usual problems of all indices created from thin air, such as choosing five inputs into the index with no systematic way to determine the weights each factor should have. Although all these rankings and indices we see in our news feed come from real data, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/07\/performance-measures-indices-and-rankings\/\">the weights are a fiction<\/a>, and completely discredit any claims to objectivity.<\/p>\n<p>The second problem is the factors that make up the index itself. In this case, what are supposed to be the key factors for college grads seeking a good job?<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"color: #000000;\">The rankings are based on five key factors:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"color: #000000;\">\n<li>The percent change in jobs requiring post-secondary education from 2010 to 2014.<\/li>\n<li>The percentage of 25-34 year olds who hold these positions.<\/li>\n<li>The average wages for these jobs requiring post-secondary education.<\/li>\n<li>The concentration of these jobs based on their\u00a0<a style=\"color: #0ab8eb;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.economicmodeling.com\/2011\/10\/14\/understanding-location-quotient-2\/\">&#8220;location quotient,&#8221; or LQ for short<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>The share of new jobs requiring post-secondary education that can be attributed to local economic conditions or competitiveness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In order then:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The percent change in jobs requiring a degree doesn&#8217;t capture the employment base. If the number of jobs requiring a BA went up over five years by 6% in Detroit and just 5% in New York, would that indicate better labor market conditions in Detroit? No.<\/li>\n<li>This is an odd metric. An absence of younger workers might mean that turnover in jobs is due? It is hard to say how this translates into better employment prospects.<\/li>\n<li>OK, it&#8217;s a gimme.<\/li>\n<li>I have a real problem with the LQ. In short, it tells us the proportion of total jobs made up by a certain type (e.g., in this case, requiring a college degree) compared to the national average proportion. But what matters to job seekers is the number of opportunities, not the number of opportunities relative to the size of the entire regional labor market. <em>If my arts administration students come looking for advice on what regions have the best prospects for jobs, I will be looking at job activity in the arts in that region, <\/em>not<em> at jobs in the arts as a proportion of all jobs in the metro region in question.<\/em> This measure has been used in many studies of the creative economy &#8211; I admit to having fallen under its spell in the past &#8211; but it is time to ask, in any further application of the LQ, is it capturing what you really want to capture?<\/li>\n<li>The last measure tries to get at what are the factors driving employment changes, in terms of regional economic make-up or national trends. The implications are not clear.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These types of indices overthink the problem, taking data that isn&#8217;t all that informative, and ignoring simpler measures that are (how about, for example, &#8216;number of new hires of college grads&#8217;?).<\/p>\n<p>And the odd rankings that come from them should give the authors pause. In this index, Detroit comes off as a better option for new grads than DC, NYC or Chicago. How much confidence do you have in that result? (If Detroit really <em>is<\/em> a good place to look, these data do not show it).<\/p>\n<p>There is a larger problem here &#8211; a demand for articles with data and maps (sorry, <em>interactive<\/em> maps) and rankings on a daily basis that haven&#8217;t been really thought through, with headlines making much bolder claims than are even close to being warranted. Please let&#8217;s not allow research on the arts to go this way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>News sites on the web demand a stream of content, and a sure way to produce something is to make a list. My previous post knocked a recent list of \u00a0&#8216;top cities for culture&#8217;, on the grounds that the way the index was constructed made no sense. Another day, another list, this one from Atlantic&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1233,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1488","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-issues","8":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/whirlwind-computer.jpg","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3dIW5-o0","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1483,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/08\/how-should-we-rank-the-culturalcreative-scenes-of-cities\/","url_meta":{"origin":1488,"position":0},"title":"How should we rank the cultural\/creative scenes of cities?","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"August 28, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Yesterday I came across a ranking of the 'top 20 US cities for culture', from the real estate blog propertyshark.com (no, not one I usually follow, h\/t Ted Gioia). The internet loves to produce listicles, and diminishing returns have long set in when it comes to ranking cities. But this\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;issues&quot;","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"so many creatives!","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/NYC-street.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/NYC-street.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/NYC-street.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/NYC-street.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2223,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2017\/07\/the-problem-with-ranking-cities-cultural-vibrancy\/","url_meta":{"origin":1488,"position":1},"title":"The problem with ranking cities&#8217; cultural vibrancy","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"July 10, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Two recent publications derive indices to rank different cities according to their cultural vibrancy - from the National Center for Arts Research in the United States, and the European Commission for European cities. They have the same fundamental problem. In each report, a selection of data series applying to cities'\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;issues&quot;","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"not this again","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/whirlwind-computer.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1156,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/03\/gays-the-creative-class-and-the-ecological-fallacy\/","url_meta":{"origin":1488,"position":2},"title":"Gays, the &#8216;Creative Class&#8217;, and the Ecological Fallacy","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"March 21, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Gay men tend to live in expensive cities with nice amenities, both cultural and climactic. Does that mean they are rich? At the Atlantic, Nathan McDermott reports: Who are America\u2019s gays? To hear it as Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia would have it, gays are a privileged set, living it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;issues&quot;","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"nice amenities you have here","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/San-Francisco-43.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/San-Francisco-43.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/San-Francisco-43.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/San-Francisco-43.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/San-Francisco-43.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/San-Francisco-43.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1144,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/03\/the-economic-impact-of-everything\/","url_meta":{"origin":1488,"position":3},"title":"The economic impact of everything","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"March 16, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Going to a bar to watch basketball, for example. From the New Republic: Nearly one-third of Americans plan to watch games at work this year, according to a\u00a0survey\u00a0from the consumer site RetailMeNot. One in five men said they\u2019d go to a bar to watch at lunch. But? March Madness may\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;issues&quot;","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"I feel you","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/sisyphus.jpeg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":932,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2013\/07\/do-cultural-districts-matter\/","url_meta":{"origin":1488,"position":4},"title":"Do cultural districts matter?","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"July 1, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"At the Art Newspaper, Adrian Ellis claims that they do: Few cities command the accolade \u201cgreat\u201d or even \u201cliveable\u201d without a significant cultural presence. Today, whether the question is \u201cWhere is the best place to bring up your family?\u201d, \u201cWhere do knowledge workers congregate?\u201d or \u201cWhat attracts inward investment?\u201d, \u201cCities\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;issues&quot;","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"walkable?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/Dallas_Arts_District_Opera_House_construction_Meyerson-300x225.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1380,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/2014\/06\/summer-books-bruce-katz-and-jennifer-bradleys-the-metropolitan-revolution\/","url_meta":{"origin":1488,"position":5},"title":"Summer books: Bruce Katz and Jennifer Bradley&#8217;s &#8216;The Metropolitan Revolution&#8217;","author":"Michael Rushton","date":"June 28, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"A dozen years ago, mayors and their economic development staff made sure they had a copy of Richard Florida's The Rise of the Creative Class on their desks. It was the big new idea that would help them understand the dynamics of contemporary urban growth, and plan for the future\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;issues&quot;","block_context":{"text":"issues","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/category\/issues\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"next big thing?","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/metropolitan-revolution-196x300.jpeg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1488"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1488\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1492,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1488\/revisions\/1492"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/worth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}