{"id":773,"date":"2026-03-05T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/?p=773"},"modified":"2026-03-03T03:06:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T03:06:15","slug":"war-is-coming-you-ready","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/2026\/03\/05\/war-is-coming-you-ready\/","title":{"rendered":"Like I said on February 27, 2024: War Is Coming. You ready?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This is not a metaphor. Real war. Today. In the nonprofit arts sector, it will force you to act.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
It’s coming soon, to a community near you. (The original photo for this article was from the Ukraine\/Russia war. This was taken in the last few days in Iran)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This article originally appeared on February 27, 2024. I wish I had been wrong. But now that it’s here, let’s look back.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States will be fighting a war within the next 6 years. It\u2019s inevitable. It\u2019s happened before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether the war is a \u201ccivil\u201d one or one against a foreign power is irrelevant. Either way, it\u2019s a war between our side and their side, whoever us and them happen to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This isn\u2019t just crazy rhetoric. Nor is it some scare tactic, a \u201cwake-up call,\u201d a hallucination, nor do I believe I have any special powers. I detest so-called psychics, seers, mediums, snake oil salesmen, and fraudulent bogeymen who use others\u2019 belief systems to gain power and cash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve been reading the powerful, logical, and relatively frightening follow-up to the late William Strauss and Neil Howe\u2019s bestseller The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny<\/em><\/a>. <\/em>The new book, The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>written by Howe, looks at the current cycle of history and predicts (along with several of his colleagues in history, sociology, and politics) what points of destiny have to happen to move beyond the current cycle of history tells us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If you haven\u2019t read the first book yet, do so. It will help you understand the cycles of history and how nothing is really as unprecedented as the media or your conspiracy theorist brother-in-law would have you believe. If you\u2019re in the nonprofit arts business and think the art you produce is not subject to these cycles, think again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All signs point to war. Everything that has led up to every \u201cwar to end all wars\u201d is happening right now. Worldwide populism movements choosing narcissistic, autocratic leadership. Eliminating democratic principles in lieu of safety. Choosing up sides. Mistrust of elections. Hatred of government. Groups determining who is \u201cus\u201d and who is \u201cthem.\u201d Fear, peddled 24 hours a day on various media, both legitimate and phony. The belief in lies and \u201ctruthiness.\u201d All this has happened before \u2013 just before all-out war. And, according to Howe (and his partner, Strauss), it happens in 80- to 90-year cycles. We\u2019re due, sometime between now and 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About 80 years after the American Revolution (which was technically a simultaneous civil war and a war against a foreign power) came the US Civil War. About 80 years after that came World War II. 2025 will mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Sometime soon, a whole bunch of countries will team up to fight a whole bunch of other countries. Each will believe they\u2019re the good guys. The American society will either coalesce (despite its differences) or collapse (because of its differences) and a new world order will happen in the next cycle. Howe\u2019s research shows that this kind of global war cycle has been going on since at least the 15th century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The catalyst for this war will take everyone by surprise. It always does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the war is internal, it will not mimic the Civil War of about eight score ago because we are no longer an agrarian economy dependent on land. The United States is a hodgepodge of sectarian economies in most of its regions. The only thing changing is the demographic makeup of the people. And while the original Puritans who eventually killed all in their path to a privileged \u201cfreedom\u201d (of their own design), today there is no such majority. And this kind of war will likely be waged between those who, in the name of all that is holy, want to return to the time when their society was dominant, even on the world stage (\u201cMake America Great Again\u201d) and those who, in the name of all that is holy, want to move forward to a time when their society is dominant (\u201cDiversity! Equity! Inclusion!\u201d \u2013 not so different from \u201cLibert\u00e9! \u00c9galit\u00e9! fraternit\u00e9!\u201d from the French Revolution, which was another war among these cycles).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paraphrasing Howe, we have the \u201cFlight 93 Take-Over-The-Cockpit heroes\u201d versus the \u201cThe-US-Is-One-President-Away-From-Becoming-A-Fascist-Dictatorship heroes.\u201d One person\u2019s insurrectionist is another\u2019s freedom fighter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peaceful secession is an unlikely scenario. Any kind of secession will be brutal, because there are no natural segregations among the state borders anymore. Plus, there are issues of standing armies, navies, air forces, national parks, national monuments, nuclear warheads, space paraphernalia, and which side has all the guns \u2013 well, you get the problems. Canada could annex the US west coast, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the New England states, I suppose, but that seems unlikely. Maybe Mexico would trade Baja California to this new version of Canada for Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and a player to be named later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
The future Cabo San Lucas, British Columbia? (Photo by Zachary DeBottis from Pexels)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The likelier scenario is a war against a foreign power. The reason is culture. At the current escalating rate, it would not be a surprise if regional killing devolved into a global religious war where death is not a deterrent to attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be fair, it should be noted that all of these wars and cycles have been subject to a principally White, European (or Euro-adjacent) prism. But, because these wars have been so deadly to millions of people regardless of their ethnicity, background, or culture, the cycles affect everyone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, all signs point to war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m going to make a wild guess that if you\u2019re in America and running a nonprofit arts organization, you are too young to have been running one during World War II. Assuming that\u2019s the case, you\u2019re about to engage in the most charitable work you\u2019ve ever done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike the oil wars of the early 90s or even the wars after the September 11, 2001 attacks, you will not be asked to \u201cshop or the terrorists win.\u201d Your job will not be to pretend that the war isn\u2019t happening. Your arts organization will not exist just to merely reflect the world\u2019s issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonprofit arts organizations have had a chance to deal with a national emergency during the COVID years. Sadly except for a few forward-thinking leaders who turned their costume shops into mask-making factories and the like, they failed. Instead, they begged for money, clunkily streamed their own art to video (we used to call that \u201ctelevision\u201d), and yelled to the heavens how \u201cessential\u201d they were. The public, as we\u2019ve discussed, largely voted not to continue support, which is why government entities are stepping up support in tiny ways, irrespective of any referenda of support, even imposing regressive sales taxes which disproportionately harm the poor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regardless, you have another chance to make your organization as essential as your PR claims them to be. What do you plan to do? If you don\u2019t have an answer soon, you won\u2019t have to worry about sustainability, order, or viability anymore. You\u2019ll just close. I guess, in a way, that\u2019s<\/em> an answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

WATCH THIS SPACE FOR A SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT ON MAY 14<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a>
Thank you so much for reading all the way to the bottom. That takes a lot of patience. If you like what you read, would you please consider contributing to the coffee fund by clicking on the cup above these words? Or better, if you’re in Seattle, let’s have a cup together. My treat.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Everything that has led up to every \u201cwar to end all wars\u201d is happening right now. What are you going to do?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1813,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,20,22,100,40,32,23,19,18,17,99],"tags":[10,103],"class_list":{"0":"post-773","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-arts-and-culture","8":"category-board-of-directors","9":"category-board-of-trustees","10":"category-book-recommendation","11":"category-change","12":"category-charity","13":"category-executive-director","14":"category-leadership","15":"category-nonprofit","16":"category-nonprofit-arts-organizations","17":"category-scene-change","18":"tag-impact","19":"tag-war","20":"entry"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/War-in-Iran-2026.jpg?fit=1000%2C563&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":785,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/2024\/03\/05\/nonprofit-arts-leaders-one-final-note-about-the-upcoming-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":773,"position":0},"title":"Nonprofit Arts Leaders: One Final Note About the Upcoming War","author":"Alan Harrison","date":"March 5, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For a nonprofit arts organization, the stakes are unusually high.","rel":"","context":"In "Arts and Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Arts and Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/category\/arts-and-culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ball-falling-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ball-falling-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ball-falling-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ball-falling-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/ball-falling-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1070,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/2024\/11\/01\/of-all-the-times-ive-wanted-to-be-wrong\/","url_meta":{"origin":773,"position":1},"title":"Special Commentary: Of All the Times I\u2019ve Wanted to be Wrong\u2026","author":"Alan Harrison","date":"November 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"We published articles in February and March about the inevitable war that will start within the next six years. Unfortunately, that timetable may be optimistic.","rel":"","context":"In "Arts and Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Arts and Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/category\/arts-and-culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/war-7142272_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/war-7142272_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/war-7142272_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/war-7142272_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/war-7142272_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1048,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/2024\/09\/17\/nonprofit-arts-organizations-whats-a-community\/","url_meta":{"origin":773,"position":2},"title":"Nonprofit Arts Organizations: What\u2019s a \u201cCommunity?\u201d","author":"Alan Harrison","date":"September 17, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Say it, out loud. What is the definition of \u201ccommunity\u201d to your nonprofit arts organization? It may not be the community to which you claim membership.","rel":"","context":"In "Arts and Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Arts and Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/category\/arts-and-culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/inigo-square.jpg?fit=1000%2C864&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/inigo-square.jpg?fit=1000%2C864&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/inigo-square.jpg?fit=1000%2C864&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/inigo-square.jpg?fit=1000%2C864&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":163,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/2023\/01\/03\/protests-marches-and-the-nonprofit-arts-industry-how-change-happens-is-circumstantial\/","url_meta":{"origin":773,"position":3},"title":"Protests, Marches, and the Nonprofit Arts Industry: How Change Happens Is Circumstantial","author":"Alan Harrison","date":"January 3, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Disequilibrium is not often caused by anything except circumstance. So, just change the circumstance.","rel":"","context":"In "Arts and Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Arts and Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/category\/arts-and-culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Protest-and-silliness-for-ArtsJournal.jpg?fit=1000%2C546&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Protest-and-silliness-for-ArtsJournal.jpg?fit=1000%2C546&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Protest-and-silliness-for-ArtsJournal.jpg?fit=1000%2C546&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Protest-and-silliness-for-ArtsJournal.jpg?fit=1000%2C546&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":809,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/2024\/03\/19\/nonprofit-arts-marketing-drive-for-image-first-the-road-to-revenue-follows\/","url_meta":{"origin":773,"position":4},"title":"Nonprofit Arts Marketing \u2013 Drive for Image First; The Road to Revenue Follows","author":"Alan Harrison","date":"March 19, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"So, here\u2019s the scoop on nonprofit arts marketing: it\u2019s about crafting and trumpeting the image of the organization, not \u201csell tickets.\u201d Tickets are a byproduct.","rel":"","context":"In "Arts and Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Arts and Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/category\/arts-and-culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/pexels-lisa-fotios-3616628.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/pexels-lisa-fotios-3616628.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/pexels-lisa-fotios-3616628.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/pexels-lisa-fotios-3616628.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/pexels-lisa-fotios-3616628.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":764,"url":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/2024\/02\/20\/nonprofit-arts-organizations-just-land-the-mf-plane\/","url_meta":{"origin":773,"position":5},"title":"Nonprofit Arts Organizations: Just Land the M*****F***** Plane!","author":"Alan Harrison","date":"February 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stop. Land. Let the current passengers deplane. Start the conversations with your community leaders.","rel":"","context":"In "Arts and Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Arts and Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/category\/arts-and-culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/fixing-the-plane-while-flying.jpg?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/fixing-the-plane-while-flying.jpg?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/fixing-the-plane-while-flying.jpg?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/fixing-the-plane-while-flying.jpg?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/fixing-the-plane-while-flying.jpg?fit=1200%2C709&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=773"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1816,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/773\/revisions\/1816"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1813"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=773"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=773"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/scenechange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=773"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}