{"id":789,"date":"2004-08-24T12:56:34","date_gmt":"2004-08-24T19:56:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp\/2004\/08\/weathering_the_shortcuts\/"},"modified":"2004-08-24T12:56:34","modified_gmt":"2004-08-24T19:56:34","slug":"weathering_the_shortcuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/2004\/08\/weathering_the_shortcuts.html","title":{"rendered":"WEATHERING THE SHORTCUTS?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><P>Let&#8217;s be grateful that Louis Menand&nbsp;did not&nbsp;become a brain surgeon. If he had,<br \/>\nhe probably would never have&nbsp;found the time to apply his scalpel to intellectual history, as<br \/>\nhe did in his spellbinding best-seller, <A class=inline\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/exec\/obidos\/tg\/detail\/-\/B0002D6COS\/qid=1093361741\/sr=1-1\/ref\n=sr_1_1\/102-5747989-6952921?v=glance&#038;s=books\" target='new\"'><B><FONT\ncolor=#003399>&#8220;The Metaphyical Club,&#8221;<\/FONT><\/B><\/A> or as he does in <A class=inline\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/critics\/atlarge\/?040830crat_atlarge\"\ntarget='new\"'><B><FONT color=#003399>&#8220;The Unpolitical Animal,&#8221;<\/FONT><\/B><\/A> his<br \/>\ndissection of how voters think, in the current New Yorker. <\/P><br \/>\n<P>To get a true sense of Menand&#8217;s surgical skills, you have to read the New Yorker piece in its<br \/>\nentirety. It&#8217;s short anyway, and a mere summary won&#8217;t do. But just to whet your appetite, here &#8212;<br \/>\nchosen at random &#8212; are some of the things he notes as he reviews various political theories based<br \/>\non<FONT color=#003399> <\/FONT><A class=inline\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/exec\/obidos\/tg\/detail\/-\/1590770269\/qid=1093363176\/sr=1-1\/ref=\nsr_1_1\/102-5747989-6952921?v=glance&#038;s=books\" target='new\"'><B><FONT\ncolor=#003399>&#8220;Winning Elections: Political Campaign Management, Strategy &#038;<br \/>\nTactics&#8221;<\/FONT><\/B><\/A> by Ron Faucheux and Ronald A. Faucheux; a 1964 article by political scientist Bruce M. Sabin on <A class=inline href=\"http:\/\/www.brucesabin.com\/nature_of_belief_systems.html\" target='new\"'><B><FONT\ncolor=#003399>&#8220;The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics&#8221;<\/FONT><\/B><\/A>; as well as<br \/>\na&nbsp;2004 paper written by Princeton political scientists Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels;<br \/>\na theory of shortcuts, particularly the ideas of M.I.T. professor Samuel Popkin; and <A\nclass=inline\nhref=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/exec\/obidos\/tg\/detail\/-\/032127640X\/qid=1093364963\/sr=1-1\/ref=\nsr_1_1\/102-5747989-6952921?v=glance&#038;s=books\" target='new\"'><B><FONT\ncolor=#003399>&#8220;Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America&#8221;<\/FONT><\/B><\/A> by<br \/>\nStanford&#8217;s Morris Fiornia and others:<\/P><br \/>\n<BLOCKQUOTE>+ An estimated &#8220;2.8 million people voted against Al Gore in 2000 because<br \/>\ntheir states were too dry or two wet&#8221; as a consequence of that year&#8217;s weather patterns. Achen and<br \/>\nBartels think that these voters cost Gore seven states, any one of which would have given him the<br \/>\nelection.<br \/>\n<P>+ In election years from 1952 to 2000, when people were asked whether they cared who won<br \/>\nthe Presidential election, between twenty-two and forty-four per cent answered &#8220;don&#8217;t care&#8221; or<br \/>\n&#8220;don&#8217;t know.&#8221; In 2000, eighteen per cent said that they decided which Presidential candidate to<br \/>\nvote for only in the last two weeks of the campaign; five per cent, enough to swing most<br \/>\nelections, decided the day they voted.<\/P><br \/>\n<P>+ The most widely known fact about George H.W. Bush in the 1992 election was that he<br \/>\nhated broccoli. Eighty-six percent of likely voters in that election knew that the Bushes&#8217;s dog&#8217;s<br \/>\nname was Millie; only 15 percent knew that Bush and Clinton both favored the death penalty.<\/P><br \/>\n<P>+ Three theories have arisen. The first is that electoral outcomes, as far as &#8220;the will of the<br \/>\npeople&#8221; is concerned, are essentially arbitrary. The fraction of the electorate that responds to<br \/>\nsubstantive political arguments is hugely outweighed by the fraction that responds to slogans,<br \/>\nmisinformation, &#8220;fire alarms&#8221; (sensational news), &#8220;October surprises&#8221; (last-minute sensational<br \/>\nnews), random personal associations, and &#8220;gotchas.&#8221;<\/P><br \/>\n<P>+ A second theory is that although people may not be working with a full deck of information<br \/>\nand beliefs, their preferences are dictated by something, and that something is \ufffdlite opinion.<br \/>\nTherefore, democracies are really oligarchies with a populist face.<\/P><br \/>\n<P>+ The third theory of democratic politics is the theory that the cues to which most voters<br \/>\nrespond are, in fact, adequate bases on which to form political preferences. People use shortcuts<br \/>\n&#8212; the social-scientific term is &#8220;heuristics&#8221; &#8212; to reach judgments about political candidates, and, on<br \/>\nthe whole, these shortcuts are as good as the long and winding road of reading party platforms,<br \/>\nlistening to candidate debates, and all the other elements of civic duty. The will of the people may<br \/>\nnot be terribly articulate, but it comes out in the wash.<\/P><\/BLOCKQUOTE><br \/>\n<P><\/P><br \/>\n<P>Or in knowing how to eat a tamale. (You have to read the article.) <\/P><br \/>\n<P>Finally, there is no culture war among Americans at large, despite polls indicating that the<br \/>\npublic is polarized into&nbsp;a&nbsp;&#8220;red state-blue state&#8221; paradigm. Opinions on most<br \/>\nhot-button issues do not differ significantly between voters in red states and voters in blue states.<br \/>\n&#8220;What has become polarized, Fiornia argues, is the \ufffdlite.&#8221;<\/P><br \/>\n<P>Menand&#8217;s piece would be hilarious, if it weren&#8217;t so scary.<\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s be grateful that Louis Menand&nbsp;did not&nbsp;become a brain surgeon. If he had, he probably would never have&nbsp;found the time to apply his scalpel to intellectual history, as he did in his spellbinding best-seller, &#8220;The Metaphyical Club,&#8221; or as he does in &#8220;The Unpolitical Animal,&#8221; his dissection of how voters think, in the current New [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-789","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-main","7":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pbvgEs-cJ","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/789\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.artsjournal.com\/herman\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}