Has the Art Market Bottomed Out? Some Omens From London

Even while galleries in Chelsea are closing, or hinting that they will this summer, there are people who believe that the art market is close to its floor.

That's the message today from ArtTactic, a British company that tracks, analyzes and  comments on the art market, is out today with a new U.S. and European Art Market Confidence Survey -- much like the consumer confidence index for the U.S. economy published by the University of Michigan.

Art Tactic charges 75 British pounds for the report, and therefore doesn't publish it for all to see. But it does reveal a few things, free:

• Confidence in the market is on the rise: After an 81% drop in the ArtTactic Art Market Confidence Indicator in December 2008, the recent survey from June 2009, shows that confidence is cautiously coming back again.
• Increased optimism about the 6-month art market outlook: ArtTactic's Expectation Indicator currently stands at 46% above the Current Indicator, although the majority of respondents still have a short term negative outlook.
• Speculation risk abates as market contracts: With buyers becoming increasingly selective, and with auction liquidity down 70-80%, there is little room for short-term speculation in the current art market.
• Market recovery could take place earlier than expected:  64% believing the contemporary art market could rebound in 2010/11.
• Price correction loses momentum:  A majority (74%) of the survey sample believe the art market would adjust another 10-20% or less, indicating that prices could be about to level out.

ArtTactic was established in 2001, but most of its research is behind a wall -- so there's no way I can see its track record.

Photo Credit: Courtesy Art Basel